June 21 Data released on Monday by the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX)—a branch of Brazil Ministry of Economy, showed that Brazilian sugar exports averaged 142,200 tons per day in the second week of June, 10.06% higher than the daily average of 129,200 tons in June last year.
Raw sugar futures hit three-week low in this week. Brazil's crushing progress accelerated in May, with the production greatly exceeding market expectations. The biweekly production at present has exceeded the previous year with a bumper production. The sugar production hits the highest in the history of the same period. The gap between the total production in the crushing season and that in the previous year is also gradually narrowing, while Brazil's exports from May to the second week of June has increased compared to the same period in last year. India and Thailand production prospects are optimistic. The global sugar supply is expected to be sufficient in the short term, which will suppress international sugar prices.
In China, the supply is more than adequate, and the incremental domestic inventory is yet to be digested. The China Sugar Association released national production and sales data for May. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 55.28%, lower than the 60.64% in the same phase of the previous sugar production period, but sugar sales in May rose on year-on-year basis, better than the market expected. In May, industrial sugar stocks stood at 4,767,900 tons, up 16.4% year-on-year, still at a relatively high level in recent years. At present, the downstream demand is weak, although in the traditional peak sales season. Overall, sugar prices are foreseen to be mainly weak in the short-term shocks.
The sugarcane industry organization—UNICA said that Brazil south-central region has crushed a total of 129.646 million tons of sugarcane in the 2021/22 season by June 1, down 10.88% year-on-year; the average ratio of sugar obtained from sugarcane was 128.27 kg/ton, up 1.24% year-on-year; the total sugar production was 7.125 million tons, down 11.12% year-on-year; the sugarcane sugar ratio was 45.14%, a decrease on year-on-year basis, while the rest of sugarcane was used for ethanol production, producing 5.824 billion liters of ethanol, down 6.66% year-on-year, including 3.971 billion liters of ethanol with water, down 13.18% year-on-year, and 1.853 billion liters of ethanol without water, up 11.27% year-on-year. Due to the impact of ongoing drought, Brazil saw a delayed start of sugarcane harvest, while the progress of crushing in May accelerated, with production greatly exceeding market expectations. The report was generally bearish on international sugar prices. Recently, crude oil prices have continued to rise and Brazil ethanol prices are at a high level. Brazil sugar production and ratio of sugar obtained from sugarcane will be followed continuously.
Chart: Sugar production in Brazil south-central region (from May 16, 2021 to June 1, 2021)